Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt provides this insight.
The Boston Celtics have for the past few years been one of the most data-driven teams in the league. The team employs what the general manager, Danny Ainge, calls his “secret weapon,” a 32-year-old named Mike Zarren, who seems to know every data point about every NBA player, past and present.
Kevin Garnett calls him Numbers, the Celtics Dancers call him Stats and Paul Pierce calls him MIT (his actual title is Basketball Operations Analyst).
Ainge says. “Mike is a much smarter guy than I am. I’m open to smarter people than me. It still comes down to my instincts. I have to make the choice, no matter what my scouts say, no matter what the models say. I don’t think it’s realistic to think that a statistical model will ever be foolproof in basketball because there are so many variables, but I do think it can help us.”
There are two channels through which Zarren can help the Celtics. The first is by assessing potential deals and draft picks, which means bouncing information off of Ainge. The second channel is strategic advice, which means going to Doc Rivers, whom Ainge says is “skeptically receptive” to Zarren’s insights.
Q. What’s the most efficient shot to take besides a layup?
A. Easy, says Zarren: a three-pointer from the corner.
Q. What’s one of the most misused, misinterpreted statistics?
A. “Turnovers are way more expensive than people think,” Zarren says. That’s because most teams focus on the points a defense scores from the turnover but don’t correctly value the offense’s opportunity cost — that is, the points it might have scored had the turnover not occurred.
Zarren admits that Ray Allen’s worth goes far beyond his perimeter shooting, that Rajon Rondo’s rebounding was an undervalued asset, that Leon Powe’s surprisingly strong play was not so surprising to the Celtics and that, as transformative a player as Garnett was known to be, he has generated a variety of offensive and defensive pluses that even the Celtics didn’t anticipate.
Zarren is also responsible for the Celtics’ basketball-related technology and uses a service that delivers video footage tagged with statistical information. With just a few mouse clicks, he can call up every clip in which LeBron James has touched the ball at the top of the key and see whether he went left or right, is double-teamed or not, passes or shoot — and, if the latter, whether he misses, scores or is fouled. So if the Celtics dampen Lebron’s scoring the next time they play a high-stakes game against the Cavaliers, Zarren might be entitled to a smidgen of credit.
(Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
If one wonders how much it has panned out in the Cavaliers series, take a look at Lebron James' stat sheet. He is shooting 35 percent (55 of 155). But in Game 7 yesterday, he explodes and scores 45 points in 48 percent shooting (14 of 29). He is eventually stopped baseline by PJ Brown, who has been inserted in the decisive quarter.
